The Academy Awards are handed out tonight and this year, in comparison to years past, I feel much better able to make Oscar predictions. I've seen six of the ten movies that are up for Best Picture. ("Black Swan," "The Kids Are All Right," "The King's Speech, "127 Hours," The Social Network," and "True Grit.) Heck, until a couple of years ago if you'd seen six best picture nominees you'd seen them all and then some.
On top of that, I have the benefit of the recently wrapped up Santa Barbara Film Fest, where I attended the panel discussions involving directors, screenwriters and, perhaps most importantly, bloggers who cover "Hollywood." So I feel I picked up a bit of a sense about what the Oscar race buzz is.
This is the Oscar ballot I'm working from, so here I go with my picks. If I'm right, no one will remember, If I'm wrong, few of you will ever forget.
Best Supporting Actor I've only seen two of the five nominees in this category but I'm going to make my pick based on buzz and go with Christian Bale, for "The Fighter." Geoffrey Rush could win it, but I think it will be Bale.
I also kind of wonder why Rush wasn't nominated in the best actor category? He was certainly on the screen long enough.
Best Supporting Actress As was the case with the last category I've only seen two of the five nominees and once again I'm picking a performance I didn't see, Melissa Leo, for "The Fighter."
Best Animated Feature Film Only three nominees in this category and I didn't see any of them (with kids who are 15 and 21, my "Toy Story" days are over) but I'm putting my money on "Illusionist." Sorry Buzz and Woody.
Best Foreign Film Didn't see any of the five nominees but I'm going with "Biutiful" from Mexico.
Best Original Screenplay "The King's Speech."
Best Adapted Screenplay "The Social Network."
Best Documentary It's always difficult to pick a winner in this category since hardly anybody gets to see the nominees. But I think this year the key to picking the winner this year is to follow the money, so I'm going for "Inside Job."
Best Actress Only saw two of the five performances in this category but I'm going with Natalie Portman for "Black Swan."
Best Actor I saw four of the five nominees in this category and I say the Oscar goes to Colin Firth. I also thought Jeff Bridges in 'True Grit" was great but Bridges won last year and I thought his character in True Grit" was a little too much like his character in "Crazy Heart." Firth was also nominated last year for his role in "A Single Man.," in which he was also very good so I think he'll still have some momentum going for him from last year's awards.
Best Director Once again, I saw four of the five nominees in this category "The Fighter" being the only one I didn't catch. I say the winner is Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech."
Best Picture The Oscar goes to "The King's Speech." Ever since our own Film Fest the talk has been that this has come down to a two picture race with the other front-runner being "The Social Network." While that was an enjoyable movie I just don't think it was a great movie. I think the Academy voters will choose World War II era history over recent history.
Th-th-th-that's all folks! Let me know if you do better than me.
All photos in this post courtesy Chuck Cagara / www.MagicalLightPhotography.com
Previously on Craig Smith's Blog, Geoffrey Rush is an Actor Not a Celebrity
© 2011 by Craig Smith and www.craigsmithsblog.com